by Kevin Kelly
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The Inevitable – by Kevin kelly
The last 30 years have served as a good platform, but the next 30 years is where shit gets real. Today, in 2016, we are in the best possible time to start something or invent something. The opportunities open to us now are enormous, and most of us don’t even realize it. The Inevitable outlines the 12 biggest ways that the world is going to change and he gives us an insight into what the world of 2050 will look like. If you can position yourself to make the most of and leverage off these changes, you’re going to do very very well for yourself over the next three decades.
“Understanding the 12 technological forces that will shape our future”
The Inevitable Summary
“This is not a race against the machines. If we race against them, we lose. This is a race with the machines. You’ll be paid in the future based on how well you work with robots. Ninety percent of your coworkers will be unseen machines.”
Technology is moving at a fast rate. Things that were previously considered ‘make believe’ are no longer fairy tale. Not all of these shifts will be welcomed – established industries will topple because old business models will not work, entire occupations will disappear, together with livelihoods.
Most of the greatest products running the lives of citizens in 2050 were not invented until after 2020. People in 2050 will look down at their wearable virtual reality contact lenses, downloadable avatars, AI interfaces and say “you didn’t really have the internet!”
The graybeards will be saying saying “Can you imagine how awesome it would be to be an innovator in 2016? It was a wide open frontier! You could almost pick some category, add some AI to it and put it on the cloud. People will respond “Oh if only I realized how possible things were back then”
It is the best time ever in human history to begin (innovate). You are not late. The Inevitable looks at the technological forces that are going to shape our future.
1 Becoming – Moving from fixed products to always upgrading services and subscriptions:
Technological life in the future will be endless upgrades. We will be endless newbies trying to keep up – presenting a constant discomfort to constant change.
2 Cognifying – making everything smarter using cheap AI:
The arrival of artificial intelligence accelerates all the other disruptions . A machine like Watson from IBM will be the world’s best diagnostician machine or human.
We will use AI as If it is electricity, plug into the grid. Business plans for next 10,000 startups are easy to forecast – take X and add AI. By end of century at least 70% of jobs will be replaced. It doesn’t matter what your role is, the robot takeover will be epic. We are already at the inflection point. Success will go to those who best optimize the process of working with bots and machines.
3 Flowing- Depending on unstoppable streams in real time for everything:
The future will consist of perpetual upgrades and on demand services. Watching on demand means, for example movies must flow. The first industry to switch to real time was music
4 Screening – every surface becomes a screen to interact with:
You will be able to play with the screen on your morning cereal. The screen will be able to read your emotions and react accordingly. Smart surfaces can read our reactions.
5 Accessing – we will go from owning assets to one where we have access to all services at all times
Possession isn’t as important as it once was. Think Uber (owns no cars), Air BNB (owns no hotels) and Ali Baba (owns no merchanidise). This will involve and allow dematerialization and decentralization.
6 Sharing – collaboration at a massive scale:
People in the future will work free on cool projects that they are passionate about. New crowdfunding techniques will give equity for people in new businesses.
7 Filtering – harnessing intense personalization in order to anticipate our desires:
Everything will be filtered for your tastes, but there are dangers of being rewarded with what you already like. You could spin into an egotistical spiral, becoming blind to anything slightly different.
8 Remixing – unbundling existing products into their most primitive parts and then recombine in all possible ways
In the future we will have the option to record every conversation we have and it will be easy to rewind to aid the memory.
9 Interacting – immersing ourselves into our computers to maximize engagement
Virtual and augmented reality will be similar to an LSD trip. Anything is possible in this world as physics doesn’t matter. We will have wearables , special spectacles that reveal the augmented reality. Over time our interaction will increase to encompass more senses, more intimacy and more immersion.
10 Tracking – employing total surveillance for benefit of customers and consumers:
Soon you will constantly track your blood pressure, variable heart rate, heart performance, oxygen level, temperature, skin conductance. You will ‘lifelog’ everything for total recall. Contstant 24/7/365 monitoring of vital body measurements will give you your best shot for a long healthy life.
Organized war will become less attractive as the shoreline of our knowledge increases. Even though our questions are expanding exponentially , our questions are expanding exponentially faster. The gap between two exponential curves is exponential. The gap between questions and answers is our ignorance, and it is growing exponentially
- A good question is the seed of innovation in science, technology, art, politics, and business.
- A good question may be the last job a machine will learn to do .
- A good question is what humans are for
In the future, people will envy us. The 2020s will be seen as the largest, most complex and most surprising event on the planet up until this time
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